Last week Statistics Canada released its latest production estimates on principal field crop production, posting some surprises on canola numbers.

Market analyst Brian Voth says the trade was expecting production to be roughly 18.1 million tonnes, with the highest estimates for the report around 20 million tonnes.

However, Stats Can only expects 17 million tonnes.

But when thinking about the growing season, Voth thinks Stats Can's estimate is actually quite reasonable, as compared to trade expectations, and perhaps even a little high.

Right now, Stats Canada is using a 38 bushel per acre average yield, which is probably do-able, but there has been an awful lot of diseases here too. There is a lot of patchy germination and emergence, which led to a lot of variability in fields," he said.

Voth says a chunk of this increase came from winter wheat and durum acres, but he thinks these estimates could be a little high.

"A lot of this is based on some pretty high yield numbers, which, obviously it is not in the bin yet. With all of the moisture we have had and acres being drowned out, I would say some of the numbers are a little bit questionable. The other part that production doesn't factor in is what the quality is going to be like, that is a whole different story yet," he said.

Voth says most other wheat-producing countries in the world are also expecting big crops this year, though with low wheat ending stocks in Canada, he thinks it will be interesting to see how the Canadian elevators respond this year.

Voth says if diseased areas take out chunks of field, it can quickly bring down average yields.