Yesterday, provincial Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Saqib Shahab presented the COVID-19 modelling numbers that officials are using to guide their policy-making decisions. About three-quarters of the way through the presentation four outlook scenarios were presented. A best-case scenario, two scenarios based on what our current numbers are doing, and a worst-case scenario.

 

 

The presentation stated that it is believed the best-case scenario, which bends the curve to a point that we see 70 new cases a day, can be achieved if 60% or more of residents wear masks regularly, our private gatherings don't get larger than 5 people, we have considerably less private gatherings, half of the province works from home, and a member of our household only visits a grocery store once per week.

In the worst-case scenario, the doctors and scientists consider that only 20% of residents will regularly use masks, only half of Saskatchewan households reduce their number of private gatherings, that only 10% work from home and a member of the household visits a grocery store twice a week.

According to the projections, if Saskatchewan ends up on the optimistic curve, cases would be expected to climb by another 4,830 in six months, and we would see another 34 deaths. If Saskatchewan ends up on the pessimistic path, per-day cases would skyrocket and total cases in the province would climb to 469,000 in six months. The number of deaths in that time frame in the pessimistic scenario would climb to 4,800.

60% of us wearing masks, compared with 20%. One trip a week to the grocery store compared with two trips. 66 deaths, compared to 4,800. The projections show that the difference between doing very little and putting in just a modest effort by the people of Saskatchewan is surprising.

The accumulative power of a simple majority of us stepping up was not lost on Dr. Shahab.

"All of these small measures, when you add them up at the population level... it's almost too easy to achieve," Dr. Shahab said in the conference. "I find it hard to believe that if we all do these simple measures, you can bend the curve. That's the message we need to take home, it really is up to all of us."

Dr. Shahab did provide one more important piece of advice. It is easier to bend the curve now with lower numbers, as opposed to later when they could be higher.